Carbon Steel
The North American average flat products price is predicted to remain reasonably flat over the next few months. However, at the turn of the year prices are likely to commence a steady decline as inventory drawdown takes hold and negative pressure builds up on domestic selling values from cheaply sourced material from the Far East. We estimate a decrease of around $US60 per tonne in the average figure from current levels by the end of the forecast period.
Activity over the Summer was slow in the US. Prices appear to have plateaued. The market is likely to weather the current quiet period because there are several planned outtages over the next few months to combat any serious threat from imports. The Canadian market may steady a little after the major price turnround in recent months.
We now believe that the peak value in this cycle occurred in July for the strip mill segment. Plate prices are, however, likely to continue to expand up to the end of the year, because delivery lead times are extended and the markets remain solid.
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